Vancouver, Canada (GLOBE-Net) - As the world continues to urbanize the impact on water resources and the available supply of water for drinking, agriculture, hygiene and industry is dwindling.  Nations around the world, even those rich in water resources, are facing potential conflicts over the planet’s most important commodity.

By 2025, a third of the planet’s population (estimated at 9 billion) could find itself scavenging for safe drinking water, the United Nations warned ahead of last month’s World Water Day (Saturday March 22). It’s clear that competition for water "will intensify in the decades ahead," said Kemal Dervis, administrator of the United Nations Development Program in its 2006 report.

Water is the ultimate fugitive resource, traversing borders through rivers, lakes, and aquifers - a fact that points to the potential for cross-border tensions in water-stressed regions."

Global economic growth, population pressures and the rise of mega-cities have all driven water use to record levels.  Today, around 3,800 cubic kilometres of fresh water is withdrawn annually from the world’s lakes, rivers and aquifers. This is twice the volume extracted 50 years ago.

In most European cities with more than 100,000 people, ground water is being used at a faster rate than it can be replenished and according to a 2007 European Union report, up to 40% of that water is being wasted.

Available water is beginning to cost more and more to capture or draw from aquifers. Large cities like Mexico City, Bangkok, Manila, Beijing and Shanghai have experienced aquifer drops of 10 to 50 meters.

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the problem as it alters rainfall patterns.  Rising sea levels are also forcing salt water into aquifers beneath megadeltas that are home to tens of millions, and changing weather patterns are set to intensify droughts in large swathes of Africa, southern Europe and Asia, according to UN’s Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC).

According to the IPCC, as temperatures have warmed, the world’s glaciers have begun retreating at accelerating rates and may disappear entirely within a few decades. China, India, and the West Coast of the United States are among populous places that rely on glacial meltwater for their water supply. Glaciers feed some of the world’s great rivers, such as the Ganges, Yellow, and Mekong, which serve 1.5 billion people.

"In the coming decades, water scarcity may be a watchword that prompts action ranging from wholesale population migration to war, unless new ways to supply clean water are found," comment a team of researchers in a review of water purification technology published tomorrow in the British journal Nature. The lack of water not only increasing cross border political tension, but it also undermines food security.

In the past few years, agricultural centres in the United States, Australia, Asia and even Canada have faced some of the worst drought conditions ever recorded. Australia, now in its 10th year of a record drought, its worst in a millennium, is resulting in the smallest wheat yields in nearly 15 years.

The United States interior is facing some of the worst drought conditions in over 50 years and has forced some of the region’s largest cities to declare water emergencies. "We have actually classified it as an exceptional drought," said David Stooksbury, a climatologist at Georgia State. "Basically [it is] the type of drought that we expect to see about once in 100 years."

Water Scarcity in Canada

Canada possesses one of the world’s largest supplies of fresh water - up to one-fifth of the global supply. Canadians consume 350 litres of water a day per capita, second only to Americans, considered by many as the most profligate wasters of water in the world.  By comparison, the average global citizen uses between 20 and 40 litres of water a day for drinking and sanitation.

Each year some Canadian municipalities must cope with water shortages, demonstrating that even in a nation with relatively large water resources, scarcity can be a problem. During the period from September 2001 to August 2002, over 65% of prairie cropland in Canada was affected by moderate, severe or record drought conditions.  The incident cost $5.8 billion dollars and according to the recent Natural Resource Canada report From impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate the prairie provinces and British Columbia should expect an increase in droughts and water shortages in the coming years.

The Great Lakes are a cross border resource which supports 9 million Canadians and 34 million Americans. They form the backbone for billions of dollars in shipping, trade, and fishing, and provide food and recreational opportunities for millions. Yet various schemes are being considered that would divert Great Lakes water to other parts of the North American heartland.

In 2004 the United States began exploring the idea of diverting significant levels of water out of the Great Lakes to help meet growing water demands.  Some fear that neither Canada nor the provinces would be able to veto such diversions, regardless of their duration, scale, or impact on the waters of the shared Great Lakes ecosystem.

According to Ohio’s director of natural resources, the states are simply trying to exercise their sovereign rights. "There are no standards for diversions now," Sam Speck says. "Canada doesn’t have any voice in diversions states want to make."

According to experts such diversions could drop water levels in Lake Michigan by up to 10 feet. Diverting water from the Great Lakes to assist with drought conditions has been an on-again, off-again battle between the US and Canada, but as the frequency of water shortages and droughts increase in North America, the idea may soon become a reality.

In total, forty percent of Canada’s boundary with the United States is composed of fresh water.  As the most precious commodity on the planet becomes scarcer, border relations between both nations may also become increasingly strained and hostile without proper management (see GLOBE-Net article Environment Could Shape Border of the Future).

Can the tides be turned?

Earth’s water supplies are fixed - what we had yesterday is the same as what we’ll have tomorrow. Though many of the resources needed for economic development are being depleted, the quantity of water is constant. The problem with water availability is the location, timing and distribution of rainfall.  The challenge is to help communities ensure that water is always where it is needed, when it is needed, which is not necessarily where it falls as rain.

What is required is proper water management and the dissemination of best practices and technologies from water rich nations to nations that are lacking in fresh water resources. For example, on World Water Day the United Kingdom pledged $16 million to the linkNile Basin Initiative to help the 10 countries that share the biggest river in the world make better use of this resource.

A 2005 UNESCO report ranked Canada second in the world in terms of the quality and management of its water systems.  With its experience Canada could play a significant role as a leader in helping solve the emerging global water issues.

 "Through water sharing and co-ordination we can provide long term solutions to the world’s water shortages," said United Kingdom International Development Minister Gareth Thomas "Climate change and rising food and energy costs make the need for an open dialogue all the more urgent. If we do not act the reality is that water supplies may become the subject of international conflict in the years ahead. We need to invest now to prevent us having to pay that price in the future."