Society faces 'grim' post-fossil fuel energy crisis, report warns
Society faces a future energy crisis because renewable
energy will not be enough to replace dwindling fossil fuel
supplies, a new US study warns.
Industrial society cannot be maintained at present levels in a
future where renewable resources take over from fossil fuels,
according to the report by two leading California-based think
tanks.
Jerry Mander, founder of the International Forum on
Globalisation, which published the report this month, writes in the
foreword: “With fossil fuels fast disappearing, and their
continuing supplies becoming ever more problematic and expensive,
hopes have turned to renewable sources that we ask to save “our way
of life” at more or less its current level.
“Alas, as we will see the “net energy” gain from all alternative
systems – that is, the amount of energy produced, compared with
the amount of energy (as well as money and materials) that must be
invested in building and operating them – is far too small to
begin to sustain industrial society at its present levels.
Perhaps the most significant limit to future energy
supplies is the “net energy” factor-the requirement that energy
systems yield more energy than is invested in their construction
and operation.
“This is very grim news, and demands vast, rapid adjustments by
all parties, from governments to industries and even environmental
organizations, that thus far are not clearly in the offing.”
The report examines 18 of the most viable power production
alternatives, from traditional fossil fuels and nuclear, to wind,
solar, wave, geothermal, biomass and others. Wind and solar are the
best possibilities for large scale production and net energy
performance, it concludes.
But these are still limited by supply interruptions, the
remoteness of the best resources and the materials.
The report warns the inability of alternative energy sources to
meet current industrial society demands could lead to severe supply
problems, worsened by other factors such as climate change and
water shortages.
The report explores some of the presently proposed energy
transition scenarios, showing why, up to this time, most are overly
optimistic, as they do not address all of the relevant limiting
factors to the expansion of alternative energy sources. Finally, it
shows why energy conservation (using less energy, and also less
resource materials) combined with humane, gradual population
decline must become primary strategies for achieving
sustainability.
Energy shortages will force changes in industrial production and
personal consumption changes and may mean having to stabilise and
reduce population levels in the long term, it argues.
“There is little likelihood that either
conventional fossil fuels or alternative energy sources can
reliably be counted on to provide the amount and quality of energy
that will be needed to sustain economic growth - or even current
levels of economic activity - during the remainder of the current
century,” the report says.
“This preliminary conclusion in turn suggests that a sensible
transition energy plan will have to emphasize energy conservation
above all. “It also raises questions about the sustainability of
growth per se, both in terms of human population numbers and
economic activity.”
The study by think tanks the International Forum on
Globalisation and the Post Carbon Institute is called Searching for
a Miracle: Net Energy Limits & the Fate of Industrial
Society.
target=”_blank”>It is available for download here.
Source: www.edie.net
