Climate change is usually presented as lurking in the future but it is already here

Feature films such as the Hollywood blockbuster The Day After Tomorrow, together with forward-looking political and scientific rhetoric and policy, such as the 2006 Stern Review and the relentless flood of IPCC reports, all give the impression that climate change is considered a major problem – much further down the road.

But a recent surge in extreme weather has meteorologists wondering if the effects aren’t being felt in earnest already. Since the turn of the century, record hurricane seasons have battered the US, flooding paralysed parts of the UK last summer and unforeseen droughts are turning African grasslands into desert. And researchers warn the worst is yet to come.

Crazy weather

According to Dr Thomas Peterson, a climatologist at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there have been observable changes consistent with a warming planet, such as a decrease in cold weather extremes and an increase in warm weather extremes and extreme weather. The USA has seen the strongest tropical seasons this decade ever recorded. Also, the tornado season this year has been unusually strong (see the Tornado Project for listings).

Kay Jenkinson, communications manager for the UK Climates Impact Programme (UKCIP), said some climate change “is already in the system” and how much more we may feel depends on our attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Determining how the weather will be affected by climate change is an extremely difficult task for meteorologists and researchers. But to create a starting base for researchers to potentially develop a loose forecast, Jenkinson says the UKCIP has been working with the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to determine how long it takes for the release of emissions to be felt climatologically.

Revised forecast

“We don’t feel the effects of greenhouse emissions for about 30 years,” Jenkinson says. “The gases in the air now are from the 70s and 80s.”

Research by the UK’s MeT office has shown that the earth has warmed between one or two degrees Celsius over the past 100 years. And it’s this shift that has led the principal consultant on climate change at the UK MeT office, Matt Huddlestone, to predict a growing increase in extreme weather across the globe.

“The [weather] patterns of the world are changing,” Huddlestone said. “There will be more droughts in southern Europe and more rain in northern Europe. There is more energy in the system and extreme weather is likely to increase.”

Hot water

Global warming is likely to cause an increase in the strength of tropical systems because with increased global temperatures, the seas will also be warmer, and hurricanes are fuelled by warm seas. The warmer the seas, the warmer the tropical systems will be.

Generally, areas of high precipitation will see higher precipitation and areas of lower precipitation will see even lower precipitation. Due to warmer temperatures, evaporation will be even faster and deposited in similar areas because of global wind patterns that naturally distribute the world’s precipitation. Saharan desertification, a trend of the past 100 years, is likely to continue and intensify. And flooding episodes, such as last summer’s UK flooding, will be far more frequent.

Although climate researchers say individual weather events cannot be blamed on climate change Huddlestone argues that would be like linking one cigarette to a lifetime smoker’s lung cancer – the link between climate change and weather is growing and will continue to do so.

Huddlestone says temperatures have been increasing by an average of 0.13ºC per decade over the past 50 years and that figure will rise to 0.2º C over the next decade, a sign that climate change may be making its impact felt in a bigger way soon.

Storm warning

Perhaps some of the most frightening predictions by meteorologists surround tropical cyclones, especially in the warm waters of the Caribbean, where hurricanes are now stronger and more frequent than ever before – storms such as Katrina and the Burmese typhoon could become far more frequent. Dr Peterson of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationsays that trend isn’t likely to diminish any time soon.

“[For each degree Celsius of global warming], hurricane wind speed and rainfall could increase between 6% and 18% and wind speeds by 1% and 8%,” Dr Peterson says.

Ian Curtis, a researcher from Oxford University’s Environmental Change Institute, reckons the greatest effects from climate change won’t come for a few more years.

“We can’t see there being drastic changes over the next five to 10 years,” Curtis said. “We expect bigger changes over the next two to three decades.”

Liability and vulnerability

Though climate change’s exact impact may be far from predictable, a definite is the need for businesses to adapt to whatever is thrown their way. Dr Paul Pritchard, the corporate responsibility manager for Royal & Sun Alliance, says climate change is a unique challenge for businesses.

“Climate change is a longer term issue, and that makes it more dangerous than other issues,” Dr Pritchard said. “I think it’s difficult for most businesses to recognise that this is an issue now.” Dr Pritchard is an environmental risk assessor, with experience of calculating how current and future weather patterns are likely to impact insurance-seeking companies.

Huddlestone of the UK Met Office said most businesses and companies were relying on the wrong meteorological numbers. Companies, he says, are looking at meteorological averages from the past 100 to 150 years rather than more recent averages that reflect the changing climate. In analysing climate change and its potential impact on a business, Huddlestone recommends companies should look at meteorological observations on a shorter-term basis. Because the climate has changed, meteorological observations from 150 years ago are no longer as relevant as they once were.

“Businesses need to find a way of finding what’s expected now; people need to use a shorter period of history than before,” Huddlestone said. The ænow’ time range is to average the past 15 to 20 years to make a forecast for the next five years.

Business advantage

Companies based in storm-prone areas, such as Florida, coastal Texas and even Cornwall, will have to adapt to a changing climate, according to Huddlestone.

Dr. Pritchard of Royal & Sun Alliance says businesses that invest early in climate change, including clean energy technologies and storm resistant buildings will reap long term rewards.

“If the company responds appropriately, the competitive advantage will be visible.”