That forecast proved to be as spot-on as the Met Office’s recent predictions.
First, the hacked emails from the University of East Anglia caused
unprecedented public doubts about the climate science, which were later
compounded by the discovery that the latest report of the official
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) contained the wildly
inaccurate prediction that Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035.
Copenhagen fell apart, only rescued from complete collapse by a hastily
negotiated “accord” between key world leaders. And finally US
legislation became hopelessly bogged down in the Senate – even before Barack
Obama lost the majority needed to pass it in the snows of Massachusetts.

Tomorrow, however, marks a key moment, for it is the deadline for countries to
sign up to the Copenhagen Accord and make their pledges official. So this
may be a good time to assess the effects of the storm. And peering through
the fog of hype and misinformation from parts of both sides of the debate
suggests a surprising conclusion; so far, much less damage than might be
expected has actually been done.

Despite the sceptics’ best efforts, for example, the basic edifice of global-
warming science remains intact. Nothing in the so-called Climategate emails
damages it. The most quoted one – about using a “trick” to “hide
the decline” – has been widely, but inaccurately, taken to refer to
trying to cover up a supposed drop in temperatures since the anomalously hot
year of 1998: in fact, it refers to a relatively technical issue over
tree-ring measurements from Siberia in the 1960s which suggested the
thermometer was falling when it was in fact going the other way.

The scientists’ disgraceful failure to comply with the Freedom of Information
Act and the Himalayan glacier debacle are much more serious. One was rightly
condemned by the Information Commissioner last week; the other reveals
sloppiness at the IPCC. But again, neither touches the basic science; the
Himalayan howler concerns a predicted effect of global warming, rather than
the climate change itself. The obituaries of the science proclaimed daily by
sceptics so far are not even premature.

Tomorrow, furthermore, is likely to reveal remarkably little damage to
international structures. The UN says it will not announce who has endorsed
the Accord for some days, but all the main polluting countries – accounting
for 80 per cent of emissions worldwide – are expected to do so. This is a
surprise. Western governments thought that the big, rapidly industrialising
countries would refuse to join, but they have.

The prospects for a new treaty are dimmer than before the storm broke: despite
official optimism, there is little chance of one even by the end of this
year. But action to reduce emissions – in the main developing countries, at
least – is actually occurring faster than expected. In the few weeks since
Copenhagen, China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia have all taken
important steps.

Even in the United States, more remains standing than at first appears.
Obama’s State of the Union speech actually elevated climate above health-
care in his priorities, largely because of the job-creating potential of
measures to improve energy efficiency and boost reneweable sources of power.
He also promised to include an expansion of nuclear energy, which has
infuriated environmentalists but increases the chances of some Republican
support for a bill. True, any legislation is unlikely to contain its
hitherto core measures for capping and trading emissions, but many
environmentalists believe that more could be done by using existing powers
under the US Clean Air Act.

So perhaps it wasn’t a perfect storm after all. Or not yet. Either way, I
promise, I won’t inflict the phrase on you again.

Miliband must empower us all

Boy wonder Ed Miliband has attracted plaudits for saving the Copenhagen
climate summit from total disaster (he got an adjournment just as the
hopeless chairman – Danish prime minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen – appeared to
be about to concede failure, and when the proceedings restarted someone else
had mysteriously been put in charge). This week will show whether he can do
proactive as well as pre-emptive.

He is to announce details of schemes to allow householders and communities to
generate their own electricity and heat from renewable energy. This has huge
potential; one government report says a third of Britain’s electricity could
be provided this way by 2020, giving families and the country energy
security. But Mr Miliband’s plans so far aim for just two per cent and are
correspondingly mean with the incentives to encourage it.

Britain has an appalling record on renewables, despite having Europe’s best
resources. Only Malta produces a smaller proportion of its energy from them
– zero.

And for decades,

officials have especially resisted encouraging families to install renewables,
such as solar panels, preferring to control things themselves.

A YouGov poll now shows that two thirds of Britons think Mr Miliband’s plans
are not ambitious enough, and that even more are ready to pay bigger power
bills to improve them.

The Tories understand this, and promise to do better. Here’s hoping.

Will rhinos heed the call of the wild?

Conservationists will fight over just about anything, and lately a row has
been rocking the small world of the northern white rhinoceros. It’s small
because there are precious few of this

sub-species, the world’s most endangered mammal. They are thought to be
extinct in the wild, with just eight in captivity: two in San Diego,
California, and six in the Czech Republic’s Dvur Králové Zoo.

Or there were. Four of the European ones – two males and two females – have
just been shipped back to Africa in the hope that a touch of the sun will
stimulate their sex drives, and save the species. Their attempts at mating
have been “abysmal”, according to experts, possibly because they were always
being watched.

The “Last Chance to Survive” project – costing $300,000 – was mainly put up by
the charities Flora and Fauna International and Back to Africa.

The animals are now settling in at the Ol Pejeta private reserve in the shadow
of Mt Kenya, where it is hoped they will feel horny despite their prized
appendages being removed to deter poachers.

Czech activists and the European Association of Zoos protested that the
transfer endangered the rhinos by exposing them to the wild, but the Czech
zoo said: “We must offer them the last chance.”

In addition, our own Prince William has lent his support to the project. As
the product of centuries of arranged partnerings, he is presumably well
qualified to pass an opinion.

By Geoffrey Lean