The Renewable Future - A Hardheaded Analysis
Renewable energy triggers sharplypolarized views. For some, it is a costly white elephant; for
others, it is humanity’s savior, promising to emancipate us (and
our environment) from the “folly” of fossil
fuels.
impartial analysis, which would provide a much-needed dose of
pragmatism and realism to the debate, is long
overdue.
The new report by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
than 120 scientists, economists, and technology specialists,
provides that long-overdue assessment. It adopts a global
perspective and reconciles developed and developing countries’
interests, while weighing the broader economic, environmental, and
social issues at stake.
The summary, signed by representatives of the more than 190
countries meeting this week in the United Arab Emirates, concludes
that renewable energy is an increasingly practical and highly
promising option. Costs are falling - and are likely to fall even
further as innovation accelerates and global energy demand
continues to rise.
The researchers have painstakingly sifted more than 160 scenarios,
including in-depth examinations of four. The most optimistic of
these predicts that renewables could account for close to 80
percent of total energy supply by mid-century, thereby cutting
greenhouse-gas emissions by around one-third.
Of course, only time will tell whether or not this figure will be
reached. Some of the six renewable-energy technologies evaluated,
such as those that generate electricity from the oceans, will
require more research, development, and incubation before they
reach commercial maturity.
But others, such as wind, solar, and geothermal, are in some
circumstances already cost competitive - or nearly cost competitive
- with fossil fuels.
The IPCC report also underscores what some development experts and
economists have been saying for years: energy choices should take
into account wider benefits. Renewables cut air pollution, which is
costing the global economy billions of dollars a year in
health-care costs alone.
Photovoltaics can be rapidly deployed in rural areas without the
need for installing an expensive grid system - Bangladesh is a
pioneering case in point. And we are only just coming to grips with
the cooling costs of thermal power plants in terms of finite water
resources - let alone the future price of unchecked climate
change.
The ball is now firmly in politicians’ court. The IPCC assessment
points out that renewables are already growing. In 2009, installed
capacity of wind and PVs increased by more than 30 percent and 50
percent, respectively.
But the really big numbers are unlikely to be reached without the
kinds of supportive public policies that have catalyzed the
expansion of renewables in countries such as China and Germany.
Smart and forward-looking national policies are imperative. Kenya’s
new feed-in tariff has triggered a rapid expansion of geothermal
capacity, and, at 300MW, the largest wind-farm project in
sub-Saharan Africa.
But diverse national policies can achieve only so much.
International policies, including the lending decisions of the
World Bank and regional development banks, must evolve, as do the
strategies of the UN and bilateral donors.
The importance of moving forward to a new global climate agreement
in Durban, South Africa, this year cannot be underestimated.
A comprehensive agreement would bring certainty to the carbon
markets and strengthen the various mechanisms that are already
encouraging renewables in developing economies and pump-priming
private-sector investments. The Rio+20 meeting in Brazil next year
is another opportunity to spark the transition to a global green
economy.
Technical challenges remain: seamlessly managing an array of very
different energy sources will require investment in better national
and regional grids.
Yet the opportunities - to keep the global temperature rise this
century to under two degrees Celsius, and to generate decent
employment in clean-tech industries for millions of people - far
outweigh the challenges. Clean and renewable energy will be an
indispensable component of the fight against poverty worldwide.
The IPCC estimates that the costs of triggering a renewable
revolution could range from $3 trillion to more than $12 trillion
between now and 2030. That sounds pricey - and it is. But so are
fossil-fuel subsidies, which, with barely a murmur of protest, are
currently running at more than $600 billion a year.
The IPCC report has provided a solid, scientific foundation for a
low-carbon, resource-efficient future. Governments now have a
clearer perspective on how to empower the lives and livelihoods of
the world’s seven billion people (9-10 billion by 2050), while
keeping humanity’s footprint, including climate change, within the
planet’s boundaries of environmental sustainability.
Achim Steiner
of the United Nations Environment Program.
Helen Clark, a former prime minister of New Zealand, is
Administrator of the UN Development Program.
Kandeh Yumkella
the UN Industrial Development Organization.
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