Two of three Himalayan glaciers – both in humid areas of eastern Nepal – could disappear if present climate change patterns continue, a study released today predicts.

The Rikha Samba glacier, in a relatively arid area of western Nepal, showed little shrinkage in the past decade compared with the two prior decades, but the other two glaciers, known as Yala and AX010, show accelerated wastage over the last decade, according to the study.

The researchers say glaciers in humid environments can exist at lower altitudes, leaving them vulnerable to warming. They say that if climate trends observed since the 1990s continue, these two glaciers may disappear because ice masses will probably not receive enough snow to replenish the shrinkage.

The authors say their findings, based on detailed GPS measurements, may not predict the fate of other glaciers in the region. They note that these three glaciers have been studied or benchmarked because of their relatively easy access.

“It is unwarranted to draw conclusions regarding the fate of all Himalayan glaciers based on a small number of examples, especially when the benchmark glaciers are chosen in part for their small size, small elevation range and simple geometry,” write the authors, Koji Fujita and Takayuki Nuimura of Japan’s Nagoya University, in the study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.