Hurricanes are on the increase and sea levels are rising, but the booming tourist industry is still busy building beachside hotels.

Attach the word “sustainable” to tourism and a sector formerly criticised for its contribution to environmental and social degradation seems to undergo a complete transformation. According to the United Nations and international lending institutions, sustainable tourism can alleviate poverty, help with conservation and create employment for minorities.

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But at best, this vision is only in its infancy. At worst, it may never be realised at all. Recent reports indicate that the industry may take a big hit in future years, given the climate-dependent nature of tourism. Hardest hit could be developing economies with a high dependency on tourism. Moreover, the industry appears to be totally unprepared.

The United National World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) says tourism is now among the world’s largest growth industries, ranking ahead of automotive products, chemicals and food as a primary export earner. With an aggregate market share now comprising 40% of the global market, less developed countries, including island states, have been among the major destinations for international tourists.

At the same time, the market for eco-tourism is booming, with growth rates three times faster than for the tourism industry as a whole, according to studies by the International Ecotourism Society.

These growth figures have prompted organisations like the UN Environmental Program (UNEP), UNWTO and banking institutions, such as the Inter-American Development Bank, to promote tourism as a shortcut to realising Millennium Development goals, such as poverty alleviation and environmental protection.

In many cases, the tourism product is the environment, be it coral reefs, pristine beaches or Alpine resorts. According to UNWTO, if well managed, the tourism industry can effectively become a steward for the environment. In cases like Costa Rica, which aims to become carbon neutral by 2020 and whose tourism industry is increasingly focusing on eco-tourism, this is proving to be the case.

A vision far from reality

However, the tourism industry has a way to go before sustainable practices become the norm, says Ronald Sanabria, national tourism director at Rainforest Alliance, a non-profit environmental organisation. Sanabria says that, globally speaking, tourism continues to be poorly managed from an environmental perspective.

According to UNEP, tourists generally produce more sewage and garbage than locals, while hidden costs and enclave or all-inclusive tourist packages are diverting the benefits away from local economies. As a result, tourist receipts are not meeting the costs of maintaining ecosystems, particularly when it comes to maritime tourism.

Industry at risk

At the same time, tourism faces immediate risks from climate change, which could compromise the industry and the millions of people it supports.

A recent report by consulting firm KPMG says tourism is among the industries least prepared and the most vulnerable to climate change, both physically and in terms of its image. “The tourism industry has yet to come to terms with the risk and associated costs it is facing,” says Gunnar Wälzholz, senior consultant at KPMG Sustainability. “Heat waves, droughts and rising sea levels are some factors that will directly impact the industry in the short term. In the longer term, water shortages and scarcer resources may lead to social conflict, which could adversely affect the stability of the tourism sector.”

Dr Daniel Scott, Canada research chair in global change and tourism at Waterloo University, says: “It is the very next generation of tourism professionals that will have to cope with the full range of anticipated impacts. The information requirements, investment and re-branding needed for effective adaptation for destinations will require decades in some cases, and should commence now,” he said.

Scott says the political will and legislative frameworks to support adaptation are often lacking. “Effective building codes for hurricanes and set-back regulations for storm surge and coastal erosion exist in many nations, but are not being enforced due to economic pressures of developers and in some cases, government interference.”

Sanabria agrees. “Stronger legislation and regulatory mechanisms are needed,” he said. “Currently there aren’t any voluntary mechanisms that can ensure that hoteliers won’t build right on the edge of a coast – which makes [these hotels] particularly vulnerable to climate change. But it’s likely we will see such legislation in the future.”

While many companies have already begun to reduce their own carbon footprint, very few adaptation strategies have been put into action. Scott says this was because a lot more research was needed to provide sufficient information for informed adaptation. The handful of countries, including Australia, the US and Canada, that have begun to address climate change within their tourism sectors have so only expressed an “intent to act”.

But time is running out. “If destinations in less developed countries and in small islands don’t implement adaptation policies now, then they will have a major problem on their hands,” warns Stefanos Fotiou, tourism program manager at UNEP.

Adaptation will include both increasing physical protection from rising sea levels and more extreme weather, as well as diversification away from dying tourism sectors. A study examining the impact of climate change on Swiss Alpine ski resorts suggests that the Jura mountains, the lower parts of Ticino, Eastern, Central and Western Switzerland will lose their winter tourism industry over the next few decades if temperatures rise in line with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predictions.

Adaptation strategies

In response to imminent effects of climate change, UNEP, Oxford University, UNTWO and the World Meteorological Organisation this year jointly produced a manual outlining adaptation methods for a global tourism industry. The manual provides a step-by-step guide, from stakeholder engagement through to data collection, financing and action.

While strategies need to be implemented on a case-by-case basis, stakeholders in the Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change project indicate the kind of approach required. Hurricane shelters and flood-resistance measures, such as minimum floor heights for buildings in coastal and flood-plain areas, are identified as vital to tourism industry decision-making. Other measures include the development of inland tourist destinations, to alleviate the pressure on coastal destinations, and the installation of climate-change monitoring systems.

In Tobago, proposed adaptation strategies at resort level to address water shortages include the use of rainwater collectors, increasing storage tank capacity, converting toilets to saltwater and bringing in diesel-powered desalination.

In Fiji, as a preventative measure against storm surges and sea-level rise, resorts are currently required to be built at least 2.6m above mean sea level and 30m away from the high-tide mark, while building code prescribes that structures need to withstand wind speeds of 60km per hour.

According to Fotiou, the capacity of developing nations to adapt will be dependent on the success of global mitigation policies to minimise climate change. He also suggested that the willingness of developed countries to provide adaptation funds in these nations will have a significant influence.

Yet Dr Murray Simpson, a senior research associate at Oxford University and lead author or the jointly produced adaptation manual, says: “Island nations and less developed countries need to build capacity within their own countries, so they can address the issues themselves.”

Environmental guilt

According to Simpson, the impact of climate change on tourism is a double-edged sword. “Changes in the aesthetics of destinations, health issues relating to an increase in vector diseases, and the increasing intensity and frequency of storms are one side of the problem. On the other side, you have the negative knock-on effects of policy and regulation in Western countries. Green taxes and sustainability awareness campaigns could reduce the inflow of tourists.”

The “environmental guilt” scenario, whereby people choose not to travel by air, or to travel to certain destinations on the basis of their high carbon footprint, will have a backlash on developing country tourist destinations, says Francesco Frangialli, secretary­general of UNWTO. He warns that if individuals were to forego trips abroad, poverty could increase in economies with a high dependency on tourism.

“But by the same token,” Simpson argues, “small island states could benefit. If they commit to becoming more carbon neutral, they could compensate for this change in demand and capture the environmentally conscious market.”

Demanding Change

This has been one of the key drivers behind the trend towards eco-tourism in Costa Rica.

“The potential to capture niche markets has already driven many tourism service providers to adopt more sustainable practices,” says Sanabria. “The demand is coming from within the tourism sector itself – mainly from tour operators and travel companies wishing to cater for this niche.” He says 12 of the big tour operators, covering roughly 60% of Costa Rica’s market, are now demanding that their service providers be sustainability certified.

Yet the eco-tourism industry is only starting to get to grips with climate change. The World Travel & Tourism Council sustainable tourism awards this week recognised conservation organisation Ecotourism Australia for pioneering the world’s first tourism programme addressing climate change. The Tourism Climate Change Certification programme, which is due to be delivered in partnership with the South Australian Tourism Commission from mid-2008, will focus on helping operators to reduce their carbon footprint. No details about adaptation strategies have yet been released.

Insurance pressures

In the absence of government regulation, it may be financial pressure from the insurance industry that eventually strips the climate change blinkers off the tourism industry.

“At present the insurance industry is taking an advisory role regarding adaptation strategies,” says Andreas Spiegel, senior climate change advisor at reinsurance firm Swiss Re. “But in the future, insurance policies may include adaptation measures as prerequisites to reduce the underlying actuarial risk.”

As Gunnar Wälzholz, senior consultant at KPMG Sustainability, points out: “Whether it is cost, awareness or fear that drives behaviour change remains to be seen”. What is already clear, though, is that if tourism in certain areas of the world is to survive, there is an imminent need for action.