Admit it. If OPEC were a public company, you’d be hard pressed NOT to want to own shares.

The world’s biggest cartel is set to bring its members over $1 trillion this year, beating Department of Energy estimates by $150 billion and soaring over last year’s net by 57%.

That’s stellar performance…

But then again, OPEC’s price-fixing ability makes increasing revenue a self-fulfilling prophecy…

Right?

Well, a few major factors could break the cycle:

• OPEC members departing the cartel
  
• Non-OPEC oil production rising in places like Brazil, Canada and Kazakhstan
  
• General distaste for price-fixing in politics and public opinion
  

Whether a perfect storm will uproot OPEC, though, is far from certain.

Indonesia’s “Wells Are Drying”

Indonesian President Yudhoyono told the world this week that the country’s OPEC membership is in question because, quite simply, Indonesia’s “wells are drying.”

Indonesia, eastern Asia’s only OPEC member, joined the ring two years after it was launched in Baghdad in 1960.

Since then, that country of over 17,000 islands has turned from an export power into a net importer—production declined from 1.66 million bpd in 1980 to 1.1 million in 2006, while daily consumption tripled over the same period.

Economic growth at over 6% a year, even factoring in the 2008 slowdown, means Indonesia has to hold on to what it’s got left.

Indonesia has revisited its OPEC membership in the past, but decided to stay on to maintain high-level relations with big-time oil powers like Saudi Arabia. After all, Indonesia has the world’s highest Muslim population, giving it another major tie to Gulf exporters.

Indonesia isn’t the only country to consider leaving OPEC in recent years.

And declining production isn’t the only reason for splitting, as Nigeria can attest.

Low Prices Almost Drove Nigeria from OPEC

It seems like it must have been a previous lifetime, but in 2002 oil was around 20 bucks a barrel.

By Sam Hopkins