Keystone, climate change and the US economy: the truth behind the myths
North America has 2.5m miles of oil and gas pipelines. But none of those pipelines are anywhere near as contentious as the Keystone XL, which would transport tar sands crude oil from Canada to refineries on the US gulf coast. Over the past six-plus years, Keystone has become a stand-in for a broader debate about climate change. It’s also the subject of much myth-making about climate change and the economy. Below, a look at some of the most prominent of those myths, and the truth behind them.
Myth #1: Keystone XL won’t contribute to climate change
The State Department said the pipeline would not have a significant impact on development of the tar sands or crude oil demand – and so would not have much impact on climate change. But even the State Department’s own analysis found found the pipeline, once operational, would cause the equivalent emissions of 300,000 cars a year, and it noted that tar sands were 17% more carbon intensive than the average barrel of US crude oil. Subsequent analyses by the Congressional Research Service have found tar sands up to 20% more carbon intensive than the average barrel of crude.
Myth #2: Keystone will create thousands of jobs
The American Petroleum Institute lobby group claimed in 2009 that Keystone would create up to 343,000 new US jobs over a four-year period, based on demand for new goods and services, and add up to $34bn to the US economy in 2015. However, the non-partisan Congressional Research Service found those estimates were based on an internal study that had not been subject to review. The State Department in its analysis found Keystone would create about 42,000 direct and indirect temporary construction jobs, and about 50 permanent jobs once construction is finished.
Myth #3: Keystone will free the US from undemocratic oil regimes
Canada already supplies up to 33% of US oil imports – more than Mexico and Saudi Arabia combined. “The energy security implications of increased Canadian crude supplies in a global market are, therefore, somewhat unpredictable,” the Congressional Research Service found. Most of the 830,000 barrels of oil a day transported by Keystone will be exported. There is a plan for a lateral spur, which will take up to 12% of Keystone XL capacity, for oil from the Bakken shale which covers North Dakota and Montana.
Myth #4: Keystone will lower gasoline prices
Gasoline prices are already at their lowest levels in decades, as any driver knows. Keystone will have no effect on local prices at the pump because there is no direct link between gas prices and local oil production or availability. Gas prices are determined by the international prices for a barrel of oil.
Myth #1: Keystone XL won’t contribute to climate change
The State Department said the pipeline would not have a significant impact on development of the tar sands or crude oil demand – and so would not have much impact on climate change. But even the State Department’s own analysis found found the pipeline, once operational, would cause the equivalent emissions of 300,000 cars a year, and it noted that tar sands were 17% more carbon intensive than the average barrel of US crude oil. Subsequent analyses by the Congressional Research Service have found tar sands up to 20% more carbon intensive than the average barrel of crude.
Myth #2: Keystone will create thousands of jobs
The American Petroleum Institute lobby group claimed in 2009 that Keystone would create up to 343,000 new US jobs over a four-year period, based on demand for new goods and services, and add up to $34bn to the US economy in 2015. However, the non-partisan Congressional Research Service found those estimates were based on an internal study that had not been subject to review. The State Department in its analysis found Keystone would create about 42,000 direct and indirect temporary construction jobs, and about 50 permanent jobs once construction is finished.
Myth #3: Keystone will free the US from undemocratic oil regimes
Canada already supplies up to 33% of US oil imports – more than Mexico and Saudi Arabia combined. “The energy security implications of increased Canadian crude supplies in a global market are, therefore, somewhat unpredictable,” the Congressional Research Service found. Most of the 830,000 barrels of oil a day transported by Keystone will be exported. There is a plan for a lateral spur, which will take up to 12% of Keystone XL capacity, for oil from the Bakken shale which covers North Dakota and Montana.
Myth #4: Keystone will lower gasoline prices
Gasoline prices are already at their lowest levels in decades, as any driver knows. Keystone will have no effect on local prices at the pump because there is no direct link between gas prices and local oil production or availability. Gas prices are determined by the international prices for a barrel of oil.
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