A U.S. semiconductor company is scouting a Chatham County site for what could be among the largest economic development projects in North Carolina history.

The project, if it comes to fruition, could have a capital investment of $40 billion or more with 5,000 to 10,000 jobs at full buildout. Multiple sources tell Triangle Business Journal the project is on an accelerated timeline as the country, and the world, rushes to fill the gap in the global chip shortage that’s hampering the economic recovery and causing supply chain disruption.

Citing non-disclosure agreements with various parties including the company and site selection officials, sources would not confirm the name of the company but confirmed it is a U.S. chipmaker. Cities in Texas, Arizona and California are also vying for the project, sources added.

Last October, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra of Boise, Idaho-based Micron Technology (Nasdaq: MU), one of world’s largest chipmakers, announced the company’s intent to invest more than $150 billion globally over the next decade in memory manufacturing and research and development.

On an earnings call last month, Mehrotra said the firm “look[ed] forward to working with governments around the world, including the U.S., as we consider sites to support future expansion.”

When asked if the company was considering North Carolina for a facility, a Micron spokesperson said the company is vetting opportunities around the world and weighing many factors, such as “access to a strong talent pool, reliable and cost-competitive utility services, alignment with our corporate sustainability objectives, and a favorable regulatory environment.”

“In the U.S., we’re engaging in discussions with multiple states and will provide updates as the process continues and at the appropriate time,” the spokesperson added. “There are multiple factors that inform our decision to invest billions of dollars to construct and operate a fab. We will share specific locations as we close on unique investment targets.”

The North Carolina project, dubbed “Project Autumn,” has zeroed in on the former Moncure Megasite, now called Triangle Innovation Point. The 2,150-acre site in southeast Chatham near the Lee County line has been viewed for years as a prime location for a large economic development project. Multiple government and industry sources have said interest in the site has picked up recently.

“We do have some pretty significant activity on it,” said Chet Mann, mayor of nearby Sanford. “I think it’s safe to say it’s a matter of when, not if.”

Project needs new law passed

Sources said the semiconductor project is tied to the passage of the CHIPS Act, federal legislation designed to spur investment in domestic chip manufacturing. Over the past several decades, the U.S.’s share of the global chip industry has shrunk as semiconductor companies chose to invest in manufacturing plants overseas. The U.S. Senate passed the legislation last June – it was included in the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act, which includes $52 billion to fund provisions in the CHIPS Act. But the bill, widely endorsed by industry leaders, has stalled with congressional leaders in the House of Representatives. Also in June, the Senate introduced the Facilitating American-Built Semiconductors (FABS) Act, legislation that would establish an investment tax credit to incentivize greater semiconductor manufacturing in the United States.

Virtually all of the major semiconductor makers in the U.S. are now working to bring more production stateside.

Economic development officials say any of the above-mentioned companies could land in the Chatham County site because of North Carolina’s willingness to work on water supply issues. Chip plants have an enormous need for water, and if the Triangle Innovation Point site lands a new semiconductor chips manufacturing plant, millions of dollars will be needed from local and state officials to accommodate a chipmaker’s water needs.

Sanford recently received a $34 million grant from the new state budget to help expand its water plant, and Mayor Mann said that’s separate from the water line that already runs up to Moncure today. Chatham officials have noted the grant is not tied to “Project Autumn,” since the needs of a semiconductor plant would be far more than the current or expanded capacity.

Figures from the Semiconductor Industry Association show the U.S. had 37 percent of the global semiconductor market in 1990, but its stake is projected to drop to 10 percent by 2030.

The demand is rising – but other factors are in play, according to Stacy Rasgon, an analyst who covers semiconductor firms for research company Bernstein. Rasgon said that even if the U.S. still had 37 percent of the market, “We’d still be having the same shortages,” noting that much of the world’s reliance on semiconductors centers on Taiwan, which is close to China.

“It’s becoming an increasingly untenable geopolitical situation,” Rasgon said. The pressure is building, as the U.S. is competing on a global stage for these plants. And while the CHIPS Act is welcomed, he said it amounts to a rounding error when looking at an industry where plants can cost several billion dollars.

“It’s a start,” he said about the CHIPS Act. “You have to start somewhere.”

When asked what the holdup in Washington might be, Rasgon didn’t have an answer. “Because Congress is completely dysfunctional? Not sure you need any other reason,” he said in an email.

While Project Autumn’s identity remains a closely-guarded secret by local and state officials, it’s not alone in eyeing Chatham County. Michael Smith, president of Chatham County Economic Development, confirmed “multiple” companies are eyeing the region’s megasites for projects. “It’s amazing,” Smith said. “The level of interest and activity we’ve had for both of our megasites, it’s been more than we’ve seen in the history of our organization.”

Jimmy Randolph, who heads up the Sanford Area Growth Alliance, also declined to comment on specific project interest. But he said labor availability is likely to be a major consideration with any manufacturer that would require several thousands of jobs. He said the region could deliver – “in economic development, we like a good challenge” – but that it would mean utilizing workforce development resources from the state’s community colleges and university system, as well as a strong talent attraction campaign.

“It would require effort from the entire Triangle area, I think, to supply that level of talent,” Randolph said.

Sources have said that semiconductors aren’t the only possibility for the Chatham site and that at least one electric-vehicle manufacturer has considered TIP in recent months.

Triangle Innovation Point sits in Chatham County near its border with Lee County. Mann said that two years ago Sanford entered into an agreement to provide a wastewater sewer line to Chatham County. In exchange, for the next 50 years Sanford would receive 20 percent of the property taxes that result from the line.

The name of Triangle Innovation Point was changed after it was repositioned as a potential hub for tech and life sciences rather than traditional manufacturing. The site is viewed by many in the community as a location that could land a major economic development project given its proximity to Raleigh and Durham and the amount of housing being built in Chatham County. TIP was considered for Peloton’s (Nasdaq: PTON) 2,100-job manufacturing plant that eventually went to Ohio.

Interest is ticking up in the Greater Triangle and Triad areas of North Carolina. In December, the Greensboro-Randolph Megasite was chosen as the location of Toyota’s (NYSE: TM) new $1.29 billion automotive battery manufacturing plant.