But in a twist to the href=”http://www.euractiv.com/en/climate-environment/30-greenhouse-gas-emissions-cut-table-news-502133”>
debate over whether the economic crisis has made a
30% emissions reduction more realisable, href=”http://www.euractiv.com/sites/all/euractiv/files/Communication%202011-02-09.doc”
target=”_blank”>the
document says implementing the EU’s
stalling energy savings goals would reduce emissions by a further
5%.   

“The analysis shows that the cost-efficient pathway to the
necessary reduction in 2050 requires a 25% domestic reduction in
2020,” the paper reads. “It also shows, however, that the EU can
produce this reduction if it delivers on its existing commitment to
increase energy efficiency by 20% by 2020.”

The EU has set itself a legally binding
goal to reduce its emissions by 20% from 1990 levels by 2020.
Moreover, it has pledged to raise this to 30% if other countries
make comparable commitments.

The document is expected to be published shortly. Commission
sources say they hope that it will be presented in a package with
the energy efficiency plan drawn up by the energy department at the
European Commission and a white paper on transport.

The environmental group target=”_blank”>Friends of the
Earth hailed the news, but with
caveats.

“A 25% reduction represents little more than business as
usual and is a clear step-down from the proposed 30%,” said the
group’s climate and energy campaigner, Brook Riley.

EU Climate Action Commissioner Connie Hedegaard, maintains
thathref=”http://www.euractiv.com/en/climate-environment/30-greenhouse-gas-emissions-cut-table-news-502133”
target=”_blank”> the offer to reduce emissions
by 30%, agreed by EU leaders on the condition
that other big polluting countries follow suit, is wholly
unrelated to the roadmap.

“We’re proposing new exercises, models and energy efficiency
measures to liven the debate up,” a Commission source told
EurActiv. 

“We’re being active and stepping up our policies and plans so
that we’re even more ambitious. The commissioner would never
diminish her commitment to the 30% target.”

Nonetheless, the 25% number will inevitably be viewed in the
context of Brussels horse-trading, as it sits elusively between the
20% and 30% CO2 reduction targets. And failure to reach it will
most likely be blamed on the Commission’s current inability to
enforce binding energy savings goals.

Towards 80-95% reduction by 2050

The roadmap document, dated 9 February 2011, is mostly a
cost-analysis of the various steps needed to reach the EU’s goal of
reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% on 1990 levels by
2050.

In October 2009, EU leaders href=”http://www.euractiv.com/en/climate-change/eu-leaders-fail-hammer-climate-funding-details/article-186932”>
endorsed a long-term target of reducing collective developed
country emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. This
is in line with the recommendations of the UN’s scientific arm -
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - for
preventing catastrophic changes to the Earth’s
climate.

It sets suggested targets for emissions reductions in 2020
(25%), 2030 (40%), 2040 (60%) and href=”http://www.roadmap2050.eu/”
target=”_blank”>2050 (80-95%).
It also offers modelling and sectoral breakdowns of the most
cost-efficient “pathways” it sees for achieving these.

A “major and sustained investment” is proposed for renewable
energy, smart grids, carbon capture and storage (CCS), advanced
industrial processes and electrification of transport over a
40-year period. The paper predicts that the increase in spending
would amount to some €270 billion annually or an additional 1.5% of
EU GDP per annum - on top of the 19% of GDP which is currently
invested.

An additional €50 billion in research and development will also
be required over the next ten years.  

But over a 40-year period, savings from energy efficiency and
renewables are expected to net reductions in the EU’s average fuel
costs of between €175 billion and €320 billion per year, depending
on the extent and speed at which climate action is taken.

Significantly perhaps, the roadmap proposes that should the
electrification of the transport sector prove successful, “the
demand for biofuels could stay at levels not much higher than in
2020,” i.e. probably around 10% of the energy mix. 

This would mostly involve powering heavy duty vehicles and
aviation.

Carbon capture and storage would also need to be deployed “on a
broad scale after 2035” at an annual cost of €10 billion.

ETS to drive low carbon technologies

The EU’s emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) “will need to be
strengthened to drive a wide range of low- carbon technologies” and
to this end both a “sufficiently strong carbon price signal and
long-term predictability” will be needed, the paper says.

Immediately, the roadmap proposes setting aside between 500-800
million allowances in the transition between Phase Two and Phase
Three of the ETS, from 2013-2020 to offset excess allowance
allocations during the Phase Two period.