Are things really so bad? Thursday’s indicators suggest perhaps not.

While it would be wonderful if politicians in Europe and Washington would devise coherent strategies to solve their very serious debt problems, the global economy would be put on much surer footing if American companies start hiring people at a decent pace and if China and other emerging markets put a lid on inflation.

Some new data suggest both of those things are happening.

Let’s look at emerging markets first.

HSBC’s quarterly Emerging Markets Index showed growth declined to the lowest rate in two years in the second quarter. That’s a good thing: those economies were growing too fast, threatening asset-price bubbles that would force policy makers to pump up interest rates and risk a sharp drop in growth rates.

But the HSBC measure suggests emerging-market economies are slowing at a moderate pace. The index dipped to 54.2 from 55 in the first quarter. (The long-run average is 54.8.) Inflation is easing too, suggesting the steady interest-rate increase deployed in China, Brazil and elsewhere are working.

“The menacing inflationary pressures may finally be submitting to the control of policy makers in the world’s growth markets,” HSBC said in a press release.

Now, let’s turn to the U.S. labour market.

Automatic Data Processing Inc.’s latest survey of U.S. private employment, which is derived from changes in the payrolls it manages for some 500,000 clients, showed 157,000 new jobs in June compared with a monthly gain of 36,000 in May.

“At last, some unambiguously good news,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. The consensus estimate of Wall Street analysts was for a gain of 70,000.

Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, the research firm that collaborates with ADP on the survey, said in a press release that the June increase should be large enough to prevent an increase in the unemployment rate, a prediction that will be tested Friday when the Labor Department releases its next jobless figures.

At the same time, first-time claims for jobless benefits fell by 14,000 to 418,000 in the week ended July 2, the Labor Department said. The four-week moving average dropped to 424,750 last week from 427,750 the previous week.

That level still is relatively high, but combined with the ADP figures, there’s reason to speculate that the U.S. economy might be getting clear of the soft patch it struck this spring.

Peter Hall, chief economist at Export Development Canada, is betting the U.S. economy is poised for take off.

In his weekly commentary, published Thursday, Mr. Hall argues that if U.S. employers want to expand, they must begin hiring people. The U.S.’s annual productivity growth over the past decade is 50 per cent faster than the average of its peers in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. At the moment, American companies are producing 1 per cent more real goods and services than they did at the pre-crisis peak – but with 6-million fewer jobs.

“There are limits to these productivity gains, and we believe that increased hiring is imminent,” Mr. Hall wrote.

There’s lots of cash on the sidelines to fuel an expansion. Bank profits climbed to $29-billion (US) in the first quarter, just shy of the pre-crisis record, and they are sitting on $1.6-trillion of excess cash reserves, according to Mr. Hall.

For six consecutive quarters, senior loan officers at banks have told the Federal Reserve that they are slowly releasing more credit. Mr. Hall argues that it’s only a matter of time before that trickle becomes a rush.

“Much is being made of the U.S. economy’s weaknesses, but it has fundamental strengths that are not too far below the surface,” Mr. Hall wrote. “The bears who predict a lost decade for the U.S. economy might be sorely disappointed. Prepare for growth in 2012.”