Carbon dioxide emissions from human sources will increase by nearly 40 per cent by 2030 if world leaders fail to agree comprehensive reductions, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2009 said that over the 25 years from 2005 to 2030, global CO2 pollution is expected to increase from 29.1 billion tonnes a year to 40.4 billion tonnes in the absence of “specific policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions” across the developed and rapidly-industrialising nations.

The prediction is based on forecast growth in world energy consumption of 44 per cent over that period. The EIA, part of the US Department of Energy, said 94 per cent of the expected increase in industrial energy use between now and 2030 is expected in the economically developing countries, mainly China, India, Brazil and Russia.

While substantial growth is predicted in renewable energy usage, overall growth in demand will require continued reliance on fossil fuels, especially oil and coal, the report said.

On current levels of renewable energy incentives from government, and no comprehensive limits on emissions, renewable energy’s share of world electricity generation will only increase from 19 per cent to 21 per cent in 2030, the report warns.

World Carbon Dioxide Emissions 

World carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 29.0 billion metric tons in 2006 to 33.1 billion metric tons in 2015 and 40.4 billion metric tons in 2030-an increase of 39 percent over the projection period. With strong economic growth and continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels expected for most of the non-OECD economies, much of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions  is projected to occur among the developing, non-OECD nations. In 2006, non-OECD emissions exceeded OECD emissions by 14 percent. In 2030, however, non-OECD emissions are projected to exceed OECD emissions by 77 percent