Poor conditions in the Amazon and the Andes – mainly extreme poverty and lack of government enforcement – have led to substantial environmental degradation, and climate change will only make matters worse, a recent report predicts.

In a study published by the Center for American Progress (CAP), researchers examined the links among climate change, environmental degradation, migration and security in South America, particularly in areas surrounding the Amazon and the Andes.

According to the paper, climate impacts create more stress as poor conditions drive migrants from nearby areas farther into the Amazon.

“The disruption of Andean rural society has already sparked migratory movements to cities and to marginal or vulnerable areas of the Peruvian and Bolivian Amazon,” said Max Hoffman, national security and international policy researcher at CAP and one of the authors of the report.

“In the Amazon, it is more complicated, with the prospect of deforestation and contamination from unregulated mining and logging threatening the livelihoods of indigenous and riverine communities,” he added.

The area around the Amazon and Andes is large, far from political and financial hubs of South America, overwhelmingly rural, and deeply entrenched in poverty, the report said. Local communities mostly depend on smallholder, rain-fed agriculture, which makes the sector more vulnerable to climate variability.

Among the expected near-term impacts are more frequent incidents of drought and associated forest fires. Water shortages are a big concern, as glacier melting has accelerated in the last decades, threatening the water supplies for highland cities and countless downstream settlements (ClimateWire, Jan. 24).

Lawless areas and activities grow

The remoteness, lack of governance, poverty and porous borders that characterize the area have also created the perfect environment for illicit activities – such as drug trafficking and illegal logging – to prosper.

Already the cultivation of coca and cocaine production and trade have flourished, avoiding the crackdown in Colombia by moving to peripheral areas of Peru, Brazil and Bolivia. What’s more, as the European market for Latin American cocaine grows, drug cartels have established more sophisticated shipping routes, taking advantage of human migration corridors through Africa, Hoffman said.

“From West African ports, the product is moved along across the Sahel and Sahara to North Africa and, eventually, the European market,” he said.

This is of particular interest for CAP, because it links two of the group’s reports on climate migration and security in northwest Africa and Amazon-Andes, highlighting the increasing exploitation of undergoverned areas by nonstate actors, Hoffman said.

In a region with a long history of inequality, corruption and political dissent, widespread climate dislocation and resource competition could lead to serious instability and violence, the report said.

“Water is being diverted, land is being cleared and often polluted, and vast amounts of money is being made – but the perception in many areas is that the benefits never reach many residents. This leads to social tensions and outbreaks of violence, and the concern is that with the worsening effects of climate change and the further growth of these industries, such instability will increase,” Hoffman explained.

Although the risk of instability from climate change, migration and security is not as immediate in Latin America as it is in northwest Africa or India and Bangladesh, he added, this should be seen as an opportunity for smart planning and preparation.

A need to build more resilience

“Right now the United States often acts as a sort of ‘global fireman,’ putting out (or trying) fires after they start,” Hoffman said. “We need to try and determine at-risk areas and help them build resilience, provide basic livelihoods and address the cumulative sources of stress before the crises take place. It’s a better outcome, cheaper and just plain smarter.”

Some recommendations outlined in the report include better monitoring of climate data; promoting smaller, more sustainable projects; rationalizing and prioritizing funds for climate-related activities; and improving cooperation among the United States, Brazil and other countries in the region to tackle climate change and security issues.

“It serves the global interest to prepare for the effects of climate change, and it serves [U.S.] interest to help prevent instability or violence,” Hoffman said.

According to Hoffman, the U.S. image in Latin America has suffered for a long time through neglect.

“This sort of progressive partnership can help rejuvenate our engagement with the hemisphere along with promote mutual economic growth,” he said.