Vancouver, Canada (GLOBE-Net) - Canada’s frozen North - a region highly vulnerable to climate change - is undergoing dramatic ecological and social upheavals due global warming.  This region, which comprises 58% of Canada’s land area, is dependent on a frozen landscape to sustain its ecosystems, infrastructure, economy and lifestyles. But climate change is creating a tenuous future for the North and there is very little we can do about it.

This third piece in the GLOBE-Net series covering the Natural Resources Canada Report. From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, examines the impacts of climate change on Canada’s Northern Territories and the implications on the traditional way of life of the aboriginal population.

The climate of the Arctic has shown an unprecedented rate of change during the past 50 years, with significant increases both in average mean temperatures and precipitation rates.  All global climate models project continued increases in temperature and precipitation over the Canadian Arctic, which does not bode well for some species of wildlife, and which will have substantial impacts on economic and resource development.

The inevitable thawing of the North has implications that will affect the entire world’s ecosystems.  For example, the melting of landlocked polar ice is expected to significantly raise sea levels around the world. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates the global mean sea level (MSL) is will rise between 0.18 and 0.59 m by 2100.  Sea level increases will not be uniform throughout the globe; parts of the Arctic will be subject to more rapid water level growth.

Rapidly disappearing sea ice is also threatening iconic species such as the polar bear and the ring seal. A significant loss in these populations would greatly affect the traditional lifestyles of Canada’s aboriginal people.

Increasing temperature also threatens to melt the cryosphere, the permanently frozen lakes, rivers and soil which are the foundation of the Arctic’s terrestrial ecosystems and which support man-made infrastructure.

Much of the infrastructure in the North is dependent upon the cryosphere to provide stable surfaces for buildings and pipelines, contain wastes, stabilize shorelines and provide access to remote communities in the winter.

Economic Opportunities

Increased navigability of Arctic marine waters and expansion of land- and fresh water-based transportation networks will lead to a less ‘remote’ North, bringing economic risks as well as opportunities to the region. Diminishing sea ice, particularly in the Northwest Passage, Hudson Bay and the Beaufort Sea, and a lengthened summertime shipping season associated with global warming, will increase opportunities for shipping and passage within and through Canadian Arctic waters. The summer shipping season is expected to be 10 days longer by 2020 and 30 days longer by 2080.

The longer shipping season and the disappearance of permafrost and ice cover will allow for further exploitation and extraction of the Arctic’s vast natural resources, both oil and mineral. Improved access to Arctic resources is drawing increased attention from many international players including China.

"The Arctic is becoming geopolitically important, and because of that, I think we will find that there are more and more states and non-state actors that want to play a role," said Terry Fenge, an Ottawa-based consultant and expert on circumpolar issues.

"As a result of climate change, it looks very much as though industrial development in the circumpolar Arctic in the coming years and decades is going to increase," he added.

As the land settles, access to such resources could be improved through the development of permanent roads, instead of being dependent on seasonal ice roads. Water resources are also expected to become more abundant and greater summer thaws will increase waterway flows, allowing far increased generation of hydroelectricity.  In some regions of the Arctic, annual discharge from rivers is expected to increase by up to 60%.

Undermining Infrastructure

Although Arctic thawing may open up opportunities for shipping, transportation and resource extraction the infrastructure costs could be limiting.

Eleven percent of the Northern population lives in remote settlements of less than 500 people.  Access to such locations is limited and for the most part dependent on a frozen infrastructure.

Ice roads and ice bridges that are constructed and maintained each winter provide a relatively inexpensive way to supply northern communities and by industry, such as the rapidly expanding mining sector.  Without the access of these ice roads, many of these settlements can only be accessed by plane.

Increased thawing of permafrost will disrupt the foundations of buildings.  For structures built prior to the late 1990s, increased temperature will increase thaw depth and settlement potentially beyond the original design values, resulting in increased maintenance costs and remedial work to ensure structural integrity.

Of particular concern in the context of rising temperatures are the impacts on structures that need to maintain their integrity over long periods, and which have significant consequences associated with failure, such as hazardous waste containment facilities.

As noted in last weeks GLOBE-Net (article available here), estimates of the financial liability association with all federal contaminated sites exceeds $3.5 billion, 60% of which are in Canada’s North.

Coast flooding will also impact our Northern infrastructure, as two thirds of Canada’s Northern population lives in coastal areas.  Increased the risks of flooding and erosion on Arctic coasts and will exacerbate other coastal hazards, such as ice pile-up or storm surges that could rise by as much as 10 to 12 metres.

The Changing Landscape

What may be at greatest risk from climate change are the fragile northern ecosystems.  There will be unstoppable consequences in biodiversity shifts that will affect the ranges and distribution of many species.  This in turn will impact on the availability and quality of wildlife resources upon which human populations rely.

Permafrost restricts infiltration of water and has led to the formation of extensive wetlands and peatlands in areas of low relief, which could all but disappear in coming years.

The extreme temperature gradients of the Arctic mean that plant communities will show a quick and strong response to temperature change. For grass, sedge and flowering species continued temperature increase will result in higher productivity and an expansion in their ranges in the north.

Significant areas of the Yukon and the Northwest Territories are covered by boreal forest, together constituting about 13% of Canada’s total forest cover.  Increased forest disturbances such as insect outbreaks and forest fires are already occurring and will worsen as temperatures increase.

Shifting environmental conditions will likely introduce new animal-transmitted diseases and redistribute some existing diseases, affecting key economic resources and some human populations.

Polar bears have become the symbol of climate change because of the dramatic impacts it is having on the species.  Melting sea ice and climate related stresses on primary food sources (the ringed seal) are moving the polar bear population closer to extinction.  The decline in the numbers and health condition of southern populations of adult bears has already been documented.

Aboriginal Lifestyles

Approximately 100,000 people live in Northern Canada, over half of which are Aboriginal communities, where, traditional harvesting of wildlife remains a part of daily life.  As temperatures in the Arctic region rise, the Northern landscape changes affecting the wildlife resources upon which these communities are dependent.

For example, caribou, a staple food for Northern aboriginal communities are declining in number and range due in large part to increasing temperatures.

The hunting grounds themselves are becoming dangerous as snow, ice and weather conditions are becoming less predictable.

Adaptation

The impacts of climate change on the Arctic are staggering and at this point likely unavoidable.

"The Arctic is a bellwether for climate change and the region most sensitive to climate-induced changes," said Dr. Terry Prowse, professor and Chair in Climate Impacts on Water Resources in University of Victoria’s Department of Geography and a research scientist with the Water and Climate Impacts Research Centre. "Internationally, it is the high-latitude regions that are guiding the way forward about how we should and can adapt."

In February of 2000, the Northern Climate ExChange (NCE) was opened at the Northern Research Institute of Yukon College. The centre was created in response to growing concern over the impacts of climate change on the land, life, and communities of northern Canada.

In March of 2008, the government of the North West Territories released their climate change adaptation plan. "The most immediate impacts on traditional activities of aboriginal people arise from the difficulties now being experienced with travelling on the land to their hunting and fishing camps," the report reads. "Weather is more uncertain and ice is more unpredictable and dangerous because of changes in freeze and thaw cycles."

The adjustment of traditional values and lifestyles and even a migration away from ancestral lands may be the biggest challenge facing the North.  "It’s really something that’s being felt by the people of the North," said North West Territories Senator Nick Sibbeston.  "This whole way of life is at risk."

It is clear that the Arctic as we know it is changing and that very little can be done to turn it around.  What we must do is to address the impacts, both positive and negative, of these changes and to find ways to adapt to the inevitable.

The Northern Canada Chapter of the report can be found here.

The full report is available here.

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For More Information: Natural Resources Canada