Vancouver, Canada (GLOBE-Net) - A clear message emerges from the Quebec chapter of the Natural Resource Canada Report, From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate; many of the inevitable impacts of climate change on the province are difficult to predict which makes adaptation strategies difficult to develop.

According to the report all projected climate change scenarios for Quebec "remain tinged with uncertainty for several reasons: lack of data, conflicting historical trends, poorly understood processes, uncertainties related to the tools used, and North American market effects".

Much of the problem stems from Quebec’s rapidly changing demographic and shifting population which is making future population size, structure and thus resulting impacts on infrastructure and public health difficult to estimate.

Based largely on assumptions of short term trends, the Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ) predicts the province’s population will stabilize but shows continuing changes in regional composition and with an increasingly aging population.  In southern Quebec, where 90% of the Quebec population lives, many are shifting from urban centres to the outer edges of developed areas and suburban belts at a rapid pace resulting in urban sprawl.  It is unknown to what extent this sprawl will continue.

It is expected that as the population ages a greater proportion will become more vulnerable to environmental health impacts but the severity and full range of these health impacts are not fully understood.

At the same time the rapid urban sprawl occurring in the province places significant additional stress on the environment and inevitably complicates the analysis of vulnerabilities and the prediction of climate change impacts human health.

The combined impacts of climate change and urban sprawl on the natural environment are also difficult to predict.  The landscape, hydrology and geomorphology of streams, the distribution of plant and animal life, and regional biodiversity are all expected undergo significant changes, particularly in areas already subject to a high level of human pressure but the scale and specific impacts are unknown.

According to the report several studies have been produced attempting to predict the climate change impacts on Quebec’s natural landscape, but there is a considerable amount of variation amongst predictions.

The differences between these studies arise from the lower reliability of regional predictions related to large ecozones and the fact that potential interactions with other disturbances (insect epidemics, human populations) may not be considered. Considerable uncertainty also remains with respect to the frequency, scope and intensity of extreme events (violent winds, hurricanes, ice storms) affecting deciduous forests.

Because of the large area covered by forests in Quebec, adaptation measures on a large scale are difficult to apply. In addition, uncertainties surrounding the potential impacts of climate change on the forest in general, and more specifically at the regional scale, limit the implementation of specific measures in the short term.

Of all the anticipated impacts, those that affect socioeconomic activity remain the most difficult to identify the report states.  These impacts depend on poorly quantified biophysical impacts and complex reactions, such as market mechanisms and technological development.

For example, lack of knowledge of future hydrological events is an issue of concern for water resource managers, and the related economic stakes are high. 

The economic impacts are starting to be estimated, but social impacts in the medium and long terms are more speculative, if not unknown. Although many economic gains and economic development opportunities worth an estimated several hundred million dollars per year could stem from climate change in Quebec, feared economic losses and risks are much more difficult to estimate and go far beyond uniquely economic consequences.

Known Impacts

Mean temperature in Quebec has increased by 0.5°C and 1.2°C (depending on the region) between 1960 and 2003.  Although many of the climate change scenarios for Quebec remain uncertain, there are still impacts that most experts agree will occur as a result of continuing rising temperatures.

All climate models forecast warmer temperatures and more abundant precipitation in the form of extreme weather events.  A higher frequency of intense storms, which produce heavy precipitation over a short period of time, may warrant special planning in Southern Quebec, where flooding could be an issue.  In the southern region of the province a dense population lives in proximity to dams and run-of-river generating stations.

Northern Quebec is expected to see the most significant changes from climate change which will exacerbate problems already being experienced in the region.  According to the report, increased exposure to natural disasters threatens northern communities by damaging critical infrastructure, limiting access to resources and disrupting traditional ways of life that are closely related to the existing natural environment.

Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the northern Quebec have already begun to change primarily due to permafrost degradation, the formation of glacial lakes and ponds, the expansion of shrub communities and wildlife population displacements.

The coastal areas of Quebec, primarily the Gulf of St. Lawrence, home to nearly 400,000 Quebecers, are also particularly vulnerable to climate change.  Rising sea levels will result in increased erosion rates, flood risks and saltwater intrusion into groundwater, or at least into municipal water intakes posing a threat to populations living near the high water mark.

Research shows that between 1911 and 2000, mean water levels in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, rose approximately 2.0 to about 3.2 mm/year between 1911 and 2000.

Climate change will greatly increase the vulnerability of populations in this region for several reasons. First, these populations are already displaying socioeconomic vulnerability due to the partial collapse of the fishing and forest industries in the region. In this context, the future impacts of climate change will likely be negative and could add to the existing socioeconomic stress in the region.

Moreover, coastal communities are already affected by coastal erosion on critical infrastructure.  The cost of erosion and damage to coastal infrastructure has been rising for several years, and is projected to continue rising quickly if nothing is done to correct the situation.

Combined extreme precipitation events, rising seal levels and larger spring flows are also likely to increase the occurrence of coastal flooding and landslides, producing unpredictable health and safety hazards.  In July of 1996, torrential downpours resulted in over 1000 landslides in 36 hours within the province.

Adaptation Strategies

Quebec does have a high degree of adaptive capacity, due specifically to its increasingly diversified knowledge economy and some adaptation plans are already underway, although they remain limited.

The Québec Government initiated several actions in recent years to prepare the population for the impacts of climate change. In 2007 several regions implemented emergency preparedness strategies to deal with heat waves. Some actions included in these regional emergency plans include providing assistance for individuals at risk, designating areas where people can cool off, distributing water to the homeless and applying appropriate actions for patients in hospital or at home.

The Québec Government plans to establish two monitoring systems. First, it will set up an alert and monitoring system for intense heat and for monitoring health problems related to climate change in areas likely to be affected. Second, the government will introduce a short and long term epidemiological monitoring system for physical and psychosocial health problems related to extreme climate events.

The government will also provide financial support for the creation of cool areas (tree planting, creation of parks, installation of municipal pools, etc.) in urban areas and cooling for strategic infrastructures (hospitals, homes for the elderly, schools, etc.) to mitigate the impact of summer heat waves on the population.

Although adaptation is beginning to occur in the province, the remaining uncertainties limit the scope and scale of current plans.  To address these uncertainties the province has designed several studies to better understand the future impacts of climate change.

The province intends to invest in the consolidation and modernization of the climatological network and the hydrometric network, in this case by prioritizing the section of the network north of the 50th parallel. Also, it will continue to develop a network for monitoring the water table, another unknown impact of climate change according to the report.

A provincial study on the vulnerability of forests and forest sector to climate change is planned followed by climate scenario simulations completed by the Ouranos Consortium which will both be integrated into the planning of future forest practices.

In Northern Quebec, a research project testing three methods for mitigating the effects of the melting permafrost on Nunavut’s transportation infrastructures will wrap up in 2009.

Both the Natural Resources Canada report and 2004 report, Quebec: Adapting to Climate Change, conducted by Canadian research consortium Ouranos suggest Quebec should adopt a risk management approach to adaptation.  Establishing heat response programs and further researching the potential impacts of climate change are good initial steps but more adaptation action is needed.

The more severe impacts of climate change such as rising water levels and extreme weather events, both resulting in flooding, erosion and landslides need to be incorporated into adaptation plans.  Quebec’s climate change action plan for 2006 through 2012, Quebec and Climate Change: A Challenge for the Future, highlights Quebec’s adaptation plans, but makes no mention of improving safeguards against increased flooding, erosion or other potential impacts.

The clock is ticking and Quebec may need to move faster to adapt to the inevitable impacts of climate change.

The full report From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate can be found here.

The Quebec chapter of the report can be found here.

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For More Information: Natural Resources Canada