Clean-Energy Technologies aren't 'Cute,' but Critical to our Energy Future
Wired business conference crowd in New York City this May
that solar PV, energy efficiency, and other currently available
clean-technologies were “cute,” and not enough to solve
the world’s energy and climate crisis, he joined an
increasingly vocal collection of people arguing that we can only
invent our way to a clean-energy future. To some degree, Gates is
right. The clean-energy economy of the future must include more
technologies than those on the table today, whether advances in energy
storage technologies, new electrified transport systems, or perhaps
even modular next-generation nuclear power. But by downplaying the
importance of already commercialized clean technologies, he’s
perpetuating a myth that a choice must be made between R&D and
technology deployment.
If the goal is innovation – as those belittling efficiency
and current renewables claim – then technology deployment
deserves as much attention as we can afford to give it. Research labs
may be the source of early-stage breakthroughs, but even the best
technologies will face unforeseen challenges on the road to adoption,
and these can only be overcome through real-world experience. In this
sense, technology deployment is arguably one of the greatest drivers
of innovation.
One clean-tech sector that has greatly benefitted from
deployment-driven advancement is solar. Accelerating solar PV
installations have continually forced expansions of manufacturing and
supply-chain capacity, which drives down prices and allows PV to
break into new markets. This cycle of deployment, increased
production capacity, price declines, and increased deployment has
allowed the global PV market to skyrocket from $2.5 billion in 2000
to $71.2 billion in 2010, according to our
Energy Trends 2011 report. We expect PV to continue this
growth trajectory into the future, expanding to more than $113 billion
by 2020.
Distributed solar admittedly still makes up only a fraction of the
total energy market, but “cute” is the wrong adjective to
describe the burgeoning sector. To use an analogy very familiar to
Gates, envision solar on building rooftops like personal computers in
every home. In the U.S. alone, more than 100,000 people are employed
in the solar industry, exceeding the number of workers in U.S. steel
production, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association. And
the last time I heard someone describe the steel industry as
“cute” was…well, I think it’s safe to assume the
word cute has never been used in reference to U.S. Steel or its
industry sector.
Wind energy can’t be written off as a niche sector, either.
In March, wind became Spain’s main source of electricity for the
first time – meeting 21 percent of the country’s demand
for the month and beating out other sources like nuclear (19 percent)
and hydro (17 percent), according to grid operator Red Electrica. In
the U.S., several states have made wind a significant chunk of
electricity production as well. Leading the charge is Iowa, with wind
energy accounting for more than 25 percent of the state’s peak
capacity, according to data compiled for our
Leadership Index. Clean Edge research sizes the global wind
market at $60.5 billion in 2010, up from a mere $4 billion in 2000. We
project that the global wind market will grow to more than $120
billion by the end of the decade.
As for energy efficiency, the cleanest, cheapest type of energy is
the energy you never have to produce. Efficiency will be essential to
any strategy aiming to avoid soaring energy costs and decrease
greenhouse gas emissions. It won’t get you all the way there,
but efficiency has the potential to be a sizeable first step. In
2009, the Rocky Mountain Institute think tank
electric productivity of U.S. states, in terms of dollars of GDP per
kWh consumed, and found that if the least efficient states were to
match the efficiency of top-performing states, the country could
reduce electricity use by 30 percent.
from McKinsey has also found that comprehensive implementation of
energy efficiency can be an effective way to reduce carbon emissions
while simultaneously saving billions for the U.S. economy.
As someone who grew up in Seattle during the rise of Microsoft, I
am quick to jump to the defense of Bill Gates. But on this point
– his dismissal of today’s clean technologies – he
is mistaken. My point isn’t to argue for technology deployment
over R&D. Early-stage research will continue to be the backbone
of clean tech. Whether it comes from government or private funding,
research labs need access to capital if the clean-tech industry hopes
to produce world-saving solutions. But we cannot afford to wait for
the next great invention. Technologies exist today that have the
ability to make an enormous impact, and deploying them at full scale
will significantly hasten the world’s transition to a clean,
low-carbon future.
———-
Trevor Winnie is Clean Edge’s senior research analyst. He
is involved in a range of activities, including preparation
of reports, subscription products, and consulting projects.
E-mail him at
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