BP: Renewable energy will outpace oil growth in 2030
Renewable power sources will outpace oil as global energy demand surges nearly 40% in the next 20 years, according to an industry forecast released Wednesday by energy giant BP.
Most of the expected increased in energy demand will come from emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil, according to “BP Energy Outlook 2030.” Such non-OECD countries (Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development), which will account for 93% of the demand growth, will boost their share of demand from just over half currently to two-thirds.
At the same time, energy efficiency and diversification will increase. From 2010 to 2030, the report says, renewable energy sources (solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels) will increase their contribution to energy growth from 5% to 18%. In contrast, coal and oil are likely to lose market share and natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel.
The analysis is the first that BP, criticized for its key role in the massive Gulf of Mexico oil spill last year, has published, although the company says it has produced 60 years of historical data in its own BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
“One of our responsibilities is to share the information we have, to inform the debate on energy and now on climate change,” said BP’s new CEO Bob Dudley, who is trying to burnish the company’s reputation. “We are not as optimistic as others about progress in reducing carbon emissions,” he said in announcing the report, which estimates global greenhouse gas emissions will peak just after 2020 but will still be 20% above 2005 levels. “For me personally,” Dudley said, “it is a wake-up call.”
–BP’s ‘base case’ projections are that world primary energy demand growth averages 1.7% per year from 2010 to 2030 although growth decelerates slightly beyond 2020…. Toward the end of the period, coal demand in China will no longer be rising and China is projected to become the world’s largest oil consumer.
–OPEC’s share of global oil production is set to increase to 46%, a position not seen since 1977. At the same time, oil - and gas - import dependency in the US is likely to fall to levels not seen since the 1990s, because of improved fuel efficiency and the increased share of biofuels.
–Oil, excluding bio-fuels, will grow relatively slowly at 0.6% per year; natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel with more than three times the projected growth rate of oil at 2.1% per year. Coal will increase by 1.2% per year and by 2030 it is likely to provide virtually as much energy as oil excluding biofuels.
–Wind, solar, bio-fuels and other renewables continue to grow strongly, increasing their share in primary energy from less than 2% now to more than 6% projected by 2030. Biofuels will provide 9% of transport fuels and nuclear and hydropower will grow steadily and gain market share in total energy consumption.
Most of the expected increased in energy demand will come from emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil, according to “BP Energy Outlook 2030.” Such non-OECD countries (Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development), which will account for 93% of the demand growth, will boost their share of demand from just over half currently to two-thirds.
At the same time, energy efficiency and diversification will increase. From 2010 to 2030, the report says, renewable energy sources (solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels) will increase their contribution to energy growth from 5% to 18%. In contrast, coal and oil are likely to lose market share and natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel.
The analysis is the first that BP, criticized for its key role in the massive Gulf of Mexico oil spill last year, has published, although the company says it has produced 60 years of historical data in its own BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
“One of our responsibilities is to share the information we have, to inform the debate on energy and now on climate change,” said BP’s new CEO Bob Dudley, who is trying to burnish the company’s reputation. “We are not as optimistic as others about progress in reducing carbon emissions,” he said in announcing the report, which estimates global greenhouse gas emissions will peak just after 2020 but will still be 20% above 2005 levels. “For me personally,” Dudley said, “it is a wake-up call.”
–BP’s ‘base case’ projections are that world primary energy demand growth averages 1.7% per year from 2010 to 2030 although growth decelerates slightly beyond 2020…. Toward the end of the period, coal demand in China will no longer be rising and China is projected to become the world’s largest oil consumer.
–OPEC’s share of global oil production is set to increase to 46%, a position not seen since 1977. At the same time, oil - and gas - import dependency in the US is likely to fall to levels not seen since the 1990s, because of improved fuel efficiency and the increased share of biofuels.
–Oil, excluding bio-fuels, will grow relatively slowly at 0.6% per year; natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel with more than three times the projected growth rate of oil at 2.1% per year. Coal will increase by 1.2% per year and by 2030 it is likely to provide virtually as much energy as oil excluding biofuels.
–Wind, solar, bio-fuels and other renewables continue to grow strongly, increasing their share in primary energy from less than 2% now to more than 6% projected by 2030. Biofuels will provide 9% of transport fuels and nuclear and hydropower will grow steadily and gain market share in total energy consumption.
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