Annual Energy Outlook 2010
WASHINGTON, DC - The U.S. EnergyInformation Administration (EIA) today released the complete
version of the Annual Energy Outlook 2010
(AEO2010), which includes 38 sensitivity cases that show
how different assumptions regarding market and policy drivers
affect the Reference case projections that EIA previously released
in December, 2009.
In addition to
considering alternative scenarios for oil prices, economic growth,
and the uptake of more energy-efficient technologies, the
AEO2010 includes cases that examine the impact of changes
in selected policies, such as the extension of existing policies
that are currently scheduled to sunset as well as the sensitivity
of natural gas shale production to variations in drilling activity
and the size of the resource base.
The
AEO2010 sensitivity cases show that “variations in
assumptions regarding key market or policy drivers can have a
significant impact on projected energy market trends,” said EIA
Administrator Richard Newell. He noted that “understanding these
potential alternate energy futures can inform individuals,
businesses, and policy makers as they make decisions today.”
The projected
level of total U.S. energy use depends significantly on the rate of
economic growth, which is assumed to be 2.4 percent annually from
2008 to 2035 in the AEO2010 Reference case. Annual average
economic growth rates of 1.8 percent in the Low Economic Growth
case and 3.0 percent in the High Economic Growth case, correspond
to projections of energy use in 2035 ranging from about 104 to 127
quadrillion Btu, increases of between 0.1 percent to 0.9 percent
annually (target=”_blank”>Figure 1). Changes in the size of
the economy lead to less than proportional changes in projected
U.S. energy use because improvements in energy intensity vary with
rates of economic growth.
The
AEO2010 Reference case does not include potential future
policies that have not yet become law and assumes that existing
laws expire as currently specified. Some laws, however, have a
history of being extended or periodically updated. The
AEO2010 No Sunset case and Extended Policies case examine
the impacts of extending and updating various policies. Projected
energy use in both these cases is below the Reference case level.
By 2035, projected energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are 2.3
percent lower in the No Sunset case and 3.2 percent lower in the
Extended Polices case than in the Reference case (
target=”_blank”>Figure 2).
The rate of
energy efficiency improvement will also have a major impact on the
future level of energy consumption. Total delivered residential
energy consumption grows 0.2 percent from 2008 levels to 12.1
quadrillion Btu by 2035 in the AEO2010 Reference case,
assuming historical rates of technological progress in residential
equipment and appliances. However, in the Buildings Best Technology
case, if residential consumers are assumed to uniformly adopt the
best available technology (ignoring cost), total residential
consumption could be over 27 percent lower in 2035 (
target=”_blank”>Figure 3). Equipment cost,
consumer preference for a shorter payback period, and other
barriers to the selection of the best available technology can,
however, inhibit adoption of the best available technology.
EIA expects that
the level of shale gas production will significantly influence U.S.
natural gas prices, production, imports, and consumption in the
future. However, there is considerably uncertainty regarding the
size of low permeability natural gas resources and concerns have
also been raised regarding the environmental impacts of accessing
those resources. The AEO2010 includes three sensitivity
cases to examine the implications of those uncertainties.
In the No Shale
Drilling case there is no new onshore, lower 48 shale drilling
after 2009, while in the No Low Permeability Drilling case there is
no new onshore, lower 48 shale or tight sands drilling after 2009.
In contrast, the High Shale Gas Resource case increases unproven
shale gas resources in the AEO2010 from 347 trillion cubic
feet to 652 trillion cubic feet. Natural gas prices and production
vary significantly across these cases. Henry Hub spot natural gas
prices range from $7.62 to $10.88 per million Btu (all in 2008
dollars) in 2035 from the High Shale Gas Resource case to the No
Low Permeability Gas Drilling case and total U.S. production in
2035 ranges from 17.4 to 25.9 trillion cubic feet, with most of the
variation reflecting changes in shale gas production (
target=”_blank”>Figure 4).
The projections
from the complete AEO2010, including the Reference case,
all of the alternative cases, supplemental tables showing the
regional projections, as well as a report on the major assumptions
underlying the projections, can be accessed on EIA’s Internet site
at
target=”_blank”>Read the Executive Summary here
Source: www.eia.doe.gov
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