The IEA published its World Energy Outlook 2022 this week with a range of scenarios for how the future energy mix may look in the decades to come.

Shipping will need to take on ammonia for as much as 45% of its energy mix by 2050 to play its part in the world reaching net-zero emissions across all industries, according to the International Energy Agency.

The IEA published its World Energy Outlook 2022 this week with a range of scenarios for how the future energy mix may look in the decades to come.

In its net-zero emissions 2050 scenario where the world successfully meets the 2050 goal, ammonia is projected to take up 45% of marine energy by that point.

Bioenergy and hydrogen take up another 20% of demand in the scenario.

“Ships have a lifetime of 20‐35 years, which inhibits the uptake of new low‐emissions technologies and contributes to oil still constituting almost 15% of shipping fuel demand by 2050,” the organisation said in the report.

“Although it is possible to retrofit ships to run on low‐emissions hydrogen‐based fuels, this is complicated by the need for major investments and co‐ordinated efforts among fuel suppliers, ports, shipbuilders and shippers, especially when it comes to large transoceanic vessels.

“Efficiency measures such as wind kites and rotor sails also have an important role to play, since they help to reduce the need for fuel of any kind.”

In the net-zero scenario, shipping’s GHG emissions drop from 838 million mt of CO2 equivalent in 2021 to 673 million mt in 2030, 304 million mt in 2040 and 107 million mt in 2050.