A committed minority can threaten green energy projects
Scientists at NewYork’s Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute have
target=”_blank”>published a report that finds when just 10
percent of a population holds an unshakable belief, this belief
will rapidly be adopted by the majority of the society.
The scientists used computational and analytical methods to
discover the tipping point where a minority belief becomes the
majority opinion.
The finding has implications for the study and influence of
societal interactions ranging from the spread of innovations to the
movement of political ideals.
“When the number of committed opinion holders is below 10
percent, there is no visible progress in the spread of ideas. It
would literally take the amount of time comparable to the age of
the universe for this size group to reach the majority,” said
Boleslaw Szymanski, a Professor at Rensselaer. “Once that number
grows above 10 percent, the idea spreads like a flame.”
These findings confirm a significant threat that BC faces when
it comes to public acceptance of green energy projects - the
vulnerability of public perception to swing against a project if it
is opposed by a passionate few.
There are two recent examples of this in action in BC, smart
metering and distributed generation. BC Hydro’s
target=”_blank”>Smart Metering Program faces
over
target=”_blank”>radio frequency, which comes despite what
would appear to be target=”_blank”>misinformation from opponents, especially in
light of
target=”_blank”>information published by BC Hydro.
Distributed generation projects, specifically biomass, also
appears to
target=”_blank”>face opposition from groups.
Of course, committed opinion holders can also benefit green
energy projects, a concept which dates to
target=”_blank”>Everett Roger’s Diffusion of Innovation,
whereby regions with a critical mass of staunch advocates could be
best at advancing new technology projects.
Source: target=”_blank”>ISIS, Sauder School of Business, UBC
Source: www.intelligentutility.com
