Black Sea Grain Shipments

Russia and Ukraine, two of the world’s most important grain producers and exporters, have been in conflict since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of its neighbor. 

Both sides have managed to continue exports, but Ukrainian trade is suffering from the effect of attacks on infrastructure, while Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russian shipping.

The International Grains Council (IGC), in its June 25 Grain Market Report, forecasts Russia’s total grains crop in 2026-27 at 127.1 million tonnes, down from 129.9 million the year before, while Ukraine’s total was 64.4 million, up from 62.9 million. Wheat accounted for 89 million of the forecast for Russia (down from 90.3 million) and 26.1 million for Ukraine (26 million).

Russia is slated to produce 15.2 million tonnes of maize (14.8 million) and Ukraine 32 million (30.5 million). Russia will produce 18.1 million tonnes of barley (19.5 million) and Ukraine 5.4 million (5.5 million). The IGC also forecasts that Russia will produce 3 million tonnes of oats (3.3 million) and Ukraine an unchanged 400,000.

The two are large-scale grain exporters, with the 2026-27 total forecast at 53.5 million for Russia (52.6 million) and 41.9 million for Ukraine (36.8 million). Wheat is the largest part at 47.5 million tonnes (47 million) for Russia and 16 million (14.5 million) for Ukraine. Barley exports are put at 3.4 million (3.2 million) for Russia and 1.8 million (1.7 million) for Ukraine.

“Assuming no major conflict-related disruptions, Russia is set to remain the world’s largest exporter,” the IGC said, noting that its wheat exports are supported by a softer rouble and an improved production outlook.

“Ukraine is also expected to increase shipments in the coming season amid ample availabilities,” the IGC said. “However, gains may be constrained by complicated logistics and rising inland transportation costs.”

Reuters reported on June 8 that “a rise in Russian attacks on Ukrainian seaports and vessels could cut monthly grain shipments by as much as a third and have left terminal operators facing mounting losses they say they cannot cover alone,” citing officials and industry executives.

More than 90% of Ukraine’s exports go through the Black Sea.

Three exporters and industry officials told Reuters that intensified missile and drone attacks on ports, ships, railways and energy infrastructure are threatening the flow of cargoes. Russia for a time had blocked Ukraine’s key seaports following its full-scale invasion in February 2022, forcing Ukraine to shift its exports to the Danube ports in the 2022-23 season. But following a deal to allow grain through the Black Sea, the Port of Odesa has been handling about 6 million tonnes of cargo a month, the officials told Reuters.

“Potentially, export volumes from Odesa ports could fall to four million tonnes a month because of the attacks,” the news agency quoted Taras Vysotskyi, Ukraine’s deputy economy minister, as saying. “About one million tonnes could be redirected to Danube terminals, but not more than that. Logistics there are expensive.”

Average monthly exports fall

In an annual report on the sector dated April 20, the USDA attaché in Kyiv noted that Ukraine “is critically dependent on access to its ports and marine routes to ensure cost-efficient logistics for large volumes of grains.”

They noted a 22% decline in average monthly exports of wheat, barley and maize from July 2025 to March 2026 compared with same period a year earlier. Among the reasons for the drop, they said, were “Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, including transport infrastructure (railways and ports) and the energy grid, which resulted in decreased transport capacity from field to export terminal over certain time periods.”

The attaché also noted lower wheat and barley prices, year on year, during that period, which “might be associated with higher USDA-estimated global grain production and higher ending stocks for marketing year 2025-26.”

Another factor appeared to be that Ukrainian farmers built sufficient on-farm storage capacity since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, so that “a combination of low prices and the ability to keep stocks close in expectation of a better price prompted farmers to pause actively selling grains.”

The Kyiv attaché said EU import quotas forced exporters to return to a number of traditional markets, which translated into lower farm-gate prices.

“The EU is losing its position as Ukraine’s principal destination market, importing 29% of Ukraine’s total grain export volume in 2025, compared to 41% in 2024,” the attaché said.

They estimated barley exports from July 2025 to February 2026 at 1.3 million tonnes, down 36% year on year, with 80% going to four markets: China (490,000 tonnes), Turkey (300,000 tonnes), Libya (138,000 tonnes) and Saudi Arabia (121,000 tonnes).

Wheat exports from July 2025 to February 2026 were 9 million tonnes, a 24% increase with 60% going to three countries: Egypt (2.4 million tonnes), Algeria (1.6 million) and Indonesia (1.4 million).

Maize exports from October 2025 to February 2026 were 10.6 million tonnes, down 10%. The EU was the single largest destination, importing 4.8 million tonnes through ports in Spain, Italy and the Netherlands. Turkey is second (2.9 million tonnes), followed by Egypt, Tunisia and Israel (1.6 million tonnes combined).

Russian ships hit

Ukraine stepped up attacks on Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov, an important route for Russia’s grain exports, from early July, with Reuters reporting on July 16 that Kyiv said it had hit at least 11 Russian ships that day, including three dry cargo vessels.

The news agency quoted Ukraine’s drone forces commander Robert Brovdi as saying that the latest strikes brought the number of vessels struck by Ukrainian forces in July 1-16 to 147.

It cited unnamed sources as saying that Russia had been forced to limit shipping it the Sea of Azov, through which a quarter of its grain exports normally pass. It also said that Russia had “intensified strikes” on the Ukrainian ports in the Greater Odesa area, through which pass much of Ukraine’s grain exports.

Reuters also reported a 7% rise in European wheat prices and a 5% surge in Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures on July 15 on the back of the increased activity against shipping.

Russia’s export quota impact

The Russian Grain Union issued estimates, putting the take-up level of the country’s 25-million-tonne grain export quota, which ran from Feb. 15 to June 30, at 76%, bringing exports to just over 19 million tonnes.

Elena Tyurina, director of the Russian Grain Union’s analytical department, was cited by APK-Inform as saying that in 2025 the quota totaled 10.6 million tonnes in 2025, of which 87%, or 9.2 million tonnes, was taken up.

The 2026 figure includes 16.11 million tonnes of wheat and 1.68 million tonnes of maize, along with 1.24 million tonnes of barley. Russia exported wheat to 55 countries in 2026, compared with 42 countries the year before. Egypt was the most important destination, taking 3.31 million tonnes, followed by Turkey with just over 2 million tonnes and Saudi Arabia at about 1.1 million tonnes.

Maize was shipped to 11 countries, with Iran leading at 844,000 tonnes, followed by Turkey at 691,000 tonnes and South Korea at 38,500. There were also 11 destinations for barley, with Iran again the largest at 516,000 tonnes, followed by Turkey at 267,000 and Saudi Arabia at 122,000.

USDA attachés in Europe covered the EU’s grain trade relationship with Russia and Ukraine in an April 20 report, stressing that the war “continues to put pressure on global food security as both countries engaged are major exporters of feed and grains products.”

“The grains sector has been impacted by disruption in trade flows and increased input prices, such as energy, fertilizers and pesticides,” they said, adding that the EU has sought “to respond to the disruptions in the supply chains for agricultural products, especially grains and feed.”

Regarding maize, the report explained that Ukraine is anticipated to remain the main supplier to the EU, due to its price competitiveness, dictated by crop size and the geographical position. For wheat, it noted that the “main third country suppliers to the EU in MY 2025-26 include Ukraine, which accounts for a significant share of the bloc’s wheat imports,” although it noted that Spain is increasingly relying on intra-EU supplies and that “this trend is expected to be reinforced by EU restrictions on imports of Ukrainian wheat.”

In contrast, Russian grain largely has disappeared from the EU market. The US experts said the EU has not imported any significant amount of Russian wheat since 2023-24.

Nevertheless, Russia remains a major competitor on export markets. Referring to Algeria, the report said the country “is now increasingly buying price-competitive Romanian, Bulgarian and Russian wheat,” while China is expected to import little EU wheat because of “the strong competition from Canada, Australia, Russia and Kazakhstan.”

The attachés also outlined how the EU’s trade arrangements with Ukraine have evolved. It explained that the Autonomous Trade Measures “suspended import duties, quotas and trade defense measures on Ukrainian exports to the EU, providing significant economic support during the Russia-Ukraine war.

However, between June 6 and Oct. 29, 2025, the EU-Ukraine trade relationship reverted to the 2014 Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), before a revised agreement entered into force on Oct. 29.

https://www.world-grain.com/articles/23077-regional-review-war-taking-toll-on-black-sea-grain-shipments