Pike Research forecasts that plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) will reach 400,073 annual sales in the United States and 107,146 in Canada by 2020, but the real story of these sales is in the cities and utility service territories where the vehicles will be located.

The market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) began in earnest in 2010 with the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt battling for market leadership, while the Tesla Roadster targeted the high end of the performance market.

Since that time, several manufacturers have launched new models, and competition in the PEV market is likely to intensify in the 2013 model year. However, the sector remains a niche in the overall automotive industry, and manufacturers must carefully choose their strategies for bringing vehicles to market. The worldwide market for PEVs is anticipated to grow from 137,950 units in 2012 to 1.75 million in 2019.

North America Sales

In order to understand the geographical distribution of PEV sales, this report breaks down these sales by state and across cities with more than 500,000 residents in the United States, plus forecasts for Canadian provinces and the seven largest cities in Canada.

These forecasts were created by analyzing OEM vehicle rollout schedules, population and demographic trends in comparison to early PEV and HEV owner demographic profiles, and survey data on attitudes toward electric vehicles.

As a result of this analysis, Pike Research forecasts that California, New York, Florida, and Texas will lead the way in PEV sales. By 2020, Hawaii is expected to have the highest penetration rate of PEVs as a percentage of all light duty vehicle sales.

Among metropolitan areas, New York City, Los Angeles, and San Francisco are anticipated to have the largest sales of PEVs through the decade.

In Canada, the provinces of Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia, which account for 75% of the Canadian population, will represent 97% of Canadian PEV sales by 2020. Toronto and Montreal will lead Canadian PEV sales.

In Canada, sales of PEVs are highly correlated to the largest cities in the country. Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver are anticipated to have the highest concentration of PEVs by 2020. These three cities will account for 85% of PEV sales in Canada by 2020.